Wearing my developer hat I could (and at times have) wax lyrical about how awesome Silverlight is; how great it is to build RIAs using a familiar language, how great the tool support is, how easy it is to build great animations, how I’ve welcomed the return of the stateful application… but none of this will make any difference to the adoption of Silverlight.
Silverlight will only hit the mainstream when it is an incidental (yet critical) element of a must-have user experience.
Let me explain what I mean.
Flash can thank its widespread adoption to the simple fact that the demand to watch video through the web browser was such that people readily accepted the need to install a plug-in to do so. There was no alternative. No-one chose to install the Flash plug-in because it was a cool technology.
In fact, both Flash and Silverlight have yet to crack the RIA space. You simply don’t see many applications that satisfied a demand or need that can’t currently be solved using HTML/CSS/JavaScript. Sure it might take twice as long to build a really rich experience (take Google Wave for example – I shudder to think the extent of the JavaScript libraries and CSS magic that went in to it) but, for the end user, the experience is still pretty good.
Now if Microsoft ever deliver Office in Silverlight that could well be application that drives the incidental adoption of Silverlight. Certainly, Silverlight 4 has added a number of new features that would make achieving the level of functionality required for an online version of Office possible.
So come on Microsoft – give the world an application that customers have to have that just happens to be built using Silverlight. Like you need to be told ;-)